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MARKOV MODELS FOR INFORMATIONAL SYSTEM SECURITY THREAT

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The principal differences in formulation and solution to the problems of modeling security and reliability characteristics of information systems are studied. Applicability of the Markov models for the systems security threats based on the characteristics is analyzed. Correctness of the use of Markov processes in modeling the characteristics of information system security and reliability is justified. The necessity of consideration of the system vulnerability threat instead of an attack threat is proved. Models based on Markov processes and enlarged Markov chains for information system security, as well as a formal model of infringer are developed. The models are reported to be of possible use in development of an information system protection means.

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