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Assessment of the sectoral consequences of stricter environmental requirements in the Russian polymer industry

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The purpose of the study is to quantify the impact of stricter environmental requirements on the economic security of the polymer industry in the Russian Federation in the context of the transition to a closed–loop economy. The methodology is based on the calculation of the integral MSW management index (using the arithmetic mean of the partial indices of treatment, disposal, burial and infrastructure facilities), analysis of price spreads between primary and secondary pellets (2020-2025), assessment of the dynamics of environmental collection rates using increasing coefficients in accordance with Government Resolutions No. 2406 and No. 2414. The results showed that the integral index increased from 0.549 to 0.824 (an increase of 50%), but remains below the target level of 0.85; the price spread between primary and secondary pellets in 2025 reached 41% (the maximum for the period), which makes processing economically unprofitable; the basic eco-collection rate for plastic packaging increased by 48% (to 5,707 rubles/ton), and taking into account the increasing coefficients, the final load may amount to 83.4 thousand rubles/ton; 79% of eco-collection revenues are concentrated in the Central Federal District, while there is an acute shortage of capacity in the Far East (2.1% of the national total). The scientific novelty lies in the introduction of the concept of "environmental barrier" as a regulatory or economically determined restriction that forms a new regulatory environment. Practical significance: the identified threats (price, fiscal, regional, and infrastructural) require the introduction of ecomodulation mechanisms, targeted infrastructure co-financing, and automatic verification of disposal certificates.

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