Journal
Scientific and Technical Journal of Information Technologies, Mechanics and Optics
UDK
Issue:6 (106)
Download PDF0 Kbyte
PREDICTION OF FLU EPIDEMIC PEAKS IN ST. PETERSBURG THROUGH POPULATION-BASED MATHEMATICAL MODELS
Annotation
The paper presents two methods of predicting the peak of influenza epidemics using population-based mathematical models: Baroyan-Rvachev and modified Kermack-McKendrick model, proposed by the authors. We perform the comparison of the prediction accuracy of time and the value of epidemics peaks on long-term data of ARI incidence in the city of St. Petersburg. The methodology of comparison is based on three criteria of accuracy conventionally named as "square", "vertical stripe" and "horizontal stripe", and two variants of the model parameters estimation. In the first variant we calibrate the model on the data of the first city impacted by the epidemic, and use these parameters in the future for the other cities, that allows taking into account the spatial characteristics of the epidemic in the country. In the second case, we only use historical data available at the time of the prediction for a given city. The advantage of this approach is the lack of need for additional, not always available, external data to predict the epidemic. The results of test calculations have demonstrated that the first method shows good results in the case of significant delays between the peaks of epidemics in different cities. If the outbreak in St. Petersburg started soon after the registration of the first outbreaks in the other cities of the Russian Federation, the second method shows comparable results to an accuracy of 90% to predict the peak of the epidemic. In most cases, it is sufficient for the use of the results of calculations for planning antiviral activities. The lead time of the peak prediction is still at a relatively low level, that seems to be associated with a variety of patterns of virus spread and permanent changes in transport communications within the country.
Keywords
Постоянный URL
Articles in current issue
- SUPERCOMPUTER SIMULATION OF CRITICAL PHENOMENA IN COMPLEX SOCIAL SYSTEMS
- COMPRESSION OF FEW-CYCLE OPTICAL PULSES AND UNIPOLAR PULSE GENERATION DUE TO COHERENT INTERACTION WITH NONLINEAR RESONANT MEDIUM
- LIDAR COMBINED SCANNING UNIT
- INKJET PRINTING OF HIGH REFRACTIVE STRUCTURES BASED ON TiO2 SOL
- EFFECT OF OPTICAL FIBER HYDROGEN LOADING ON THE INSCRIPTION EFFICIENCY OF CHIRPED BRAGG GRATINGS BY MEANS OF KrF EXCIMER LASER RADIATION
- ALGORITHM OF MULTIHARMONIC DISTURBANCE COMPENSATION IN LINEAR SYSTEMS WITH ARBITRARY DELAY: INTERNAL MODEL APPROACH
- LUMINESCENT PROPERTIES OF SILVER CLUSTERS FORMED BY ION EXCHANGE METHOD IN PHOTO-THERMO-REFRACTIVE GLASS
- DISTRIBUTION OF DISLOCATIONS IN AlN CRYSTALS GROWN ON EVAPORATING SiC SUBSTRATES
- SYNTHESIS OF THICK GALLIUM NITRIDE LAYERS BY METHOD OF MULTI-STAGE GROWTH ON SUBSTRATES WITH COLUMN STRUCTURE
- FEATURES OF MEASURING IN LIQUID MEDIA BY ATOMIC FORCE MICROSCOPY
- GAUSSIAN MIXTURE MODELS FOR ADAPTATION OF DEEP NEURAL NETWORK ACOUSTIC MODELS IN AUTOMATIC SPEECH RECOGNITION SYSTEMS
- FUZZY MAPPING IN DATA SONIFICATION SYSTEM OF WIRELESS SENSOR NETWORK
- INTEGRATED INFORMATION SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE PROVIDING BEHAVIORAL FEATURE
- AUTOMATING SELECTION OF OPTIMAL PACKET SCHEDULING DURING VOIP-TRAFFIC TRANSMISSION
- DYNAMIC AUTHORIZATION BASED ON THE HISTORY OF EVENTS
- STATISTICAL METHOD OF TERM EXTRACTION FROM CHINESE TEXTS WITHOUT PRELIMINARY SEGMENTATION OF PHRASES
- FUNCTIONAL SURFACE MICROGEOMETRY PROVIDING THE DESIRED PERFORMANCE OF AN AIRCRAFT VIBRATION SENSOR
- EXPENSES FORECASTING MODEL IN UNIVERSITY PROJECTS PLANNING
- VIRTUAL CHANNEL SIMULATION MODEL
- ESTIMATION TECHNIQUE OF MECHANICAL PRODUCTS QUALITY LEVEL IN DESIGN PROCESS
- ANTIFUNGAL ACTIVITY OF ZnO, SiO2, Au AND Ag ACRYLIC NANOCOMPOSITES
- REDUNDANCY OF TRANSMISSIONS OVER THE AGGREGATED CHANNELS DIVIDED INTO GROUPS
- THE EFFECT OF TOPOLOGY ON TEMPORAL NETWORK DYNAMICS
- PREDICTION OF FLU EPIDEMIC PEAKS IN ST. PETERSBURG THROUGH POPULATION-BASED MATHEMATICAL MODELS