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Model of temporary alignment of indicators: concept, mathematical formalization and scope of application

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The subject of research is the feature of forecasting in the conditions of slowing growth (and then successive decrease) of the financial result from production and sales. At the same time, the work done on the topic «Model of Temporary Alignment of Indicators: Concept, Mathematical Formalization and Scope of Application», has as its goal the justification of the approach stated in the topic in combination with the forecasting method with a non-zero level of confidence: 1) the cost of production and sales; 2) the revenue from sales. The study applies the tools of the theory of algebraic equations, mathematical statistics and the theory of probability. It is proposed an approach to the identification of the period during which growing costs of production and sales are numerically equal to growing revenue from sales. The justification of required here dynamic coefficients presupposes extrapolation: 1) the costs of production and sales; 2) the revenue from sales. Hence the justification of the reliability of extrapolation involves testing the hypothesis of a non-random connection between possible estimates in time: 1) the costs of production and sales; 2) the revenue from. Model of Temporary Alignment of Indicators can be claimed by enterprises of the real sector of the economy as a tool that identifies slowing growth (and then successive decrease) of the financial result from production and sales. The developed approach makes it possible to justify the level of confidence and to forecast the period required for growing costs of production and sales to be numerically equal to growing revenue from sales.

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