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Identification and analysis of scenarios for the development of the financial result: the concept and tools

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The subject of the study is a combination of tools designed to calculate the minimum/maximum level of the expected financial result for the period of time that makes up the horizon of anticipation, and the rules for choosing the most preferable (understood as the most resistant to possible changes) way of conducting economic activity. The work is based on the synthesis of: 1) deterministic models; 2) the tools of mathematical statistics used to assess the parameters that are components of deterministic models; 3) the method of identifying and analyzing development scenarios in the context of: a) the rules for minimizing lost profits; b) rules for minimizing the maximum possible losses. The result of the study can be considered a number of conclusions. First, the identification and analysis of development scenarios seems to be an attractive option for determining the safest way to form the expected financial result, since it relies on a reasonable assumption of an equally likely distribution of all the proposed scenarios for the development of economic activity, and therefore allows to identify the best and worst. Secondly, the way to achieve the intended financial result is important here, and not the probability of obtaining it and quantifying it (although it is given). Thirdly, the methodology contains a potential problem - there may be acceptable alternatives that make it difficult to choose a scenario for achieving the expected financial result. The presented approach can potentially be in demand by enterprises aimed at creating and implementing or improving their own systems for studying the risks arising in the process of financial administration.

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