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Prediction scenario of the knowledge-based economy development in Kazakhstan

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In the second half of XX century the world economy shows a transfer to the qualitatively new model of economics based on generating and application of knowledge. This transfer has influenced on the process of long-term structural modernization of economics, appearance of new knowledge-based branches of industry and knowledge-based services (production of new materials, close control equipment, biotechnologies, information technologies, space technologies), attracted the attention of scientists and analysts to investigation of processes in new high-technological sectors and branches of economics. For Kazakhstan, the overcome of commodity dependence, increase of non-resource exports share to 70%, creation of diversified industrial sector, increase of expenses to R&D are the important tasks on the way of the knowledge-based economics forming. In this regard, highly topical is investigation of potential of knowledge-based branches and manufactures. The dominance of branches with decreased dynamics of scientific knowledge and innovations application in the production structure influences also on other components of the knowledge-based economics. The economics with low level of industry diversification, dominance of low-technological branches is hardly able to provide a base for visible growth of expenses to R&D in industry, and increase the level of expenses to R&D in the GDP to the level of that in the industrially developed countries. The current research shows the elaboration of prediction scenario of knowledge-based economics development. The developed scenario allows formulating the conceptual regularities of the knowledge-based sector forming and identify the main trends and instruments of the national economic policy.

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