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Features of uncertainty and risk accounting in the innovation projects economic analysis

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The nomination of the innovation sector as a key driver for the development of the industrial sector, which is traditionally the foundation of the economy, has become a global trend. This form of economic development is the basis of national security and technological independence of the state. In conditions of high uncertainty, the management of enterprises is faced with the problem of finding effective risk management strategies. The purpose of the study is to develop an approach to accounting for uncertainty and risk in the economic analysis of innovative projects. The objectives of the study include identifying the main features that characterize the risk assessment of innovative projects; consideration of existing approaches to the analysis and risk assessment of innovative projects; formation of an approach most suitable for the economic analysis of an innovative project, taking into account the specifics of its risks; determination of the direction of further research. The study uses a broad interpretation of risk, which refers not only to the likelihood of adverse events, but to a greater extent, the probability of a positive deviation of the result. It turns out to be effective to use risk management methods that allow preserving the possibilities of favorable deviations, characterized as acceptance methods. To account for the uncertainty of innovative projects, the study uses the method of real options, the problem of evaluating which is solved by using approaches to the evaluation of financial options, using two basic evaluation methods - the Black-Shows model and the Cox-Ross-Rubinstein model. The study proposes an author's approach to taking into account risks in the economic analysis of innovative projects characterized by a long-term nature, specificity or uniqueness of resources or results, ambiguous structure, staging, which causes additional uncertainty. This approach allows minimizing losses in the event of an unfavorable development of events and retaining additional benefits if the economic dynamics is positive. The flexibility of innovative projects, the level of which is characterized by the presence of real options, becomes one of the main factors of efficiency in conditions of increased uncertainty. The considered concept of risk acceptance is based on the attitude towards uncertainty as a source of additional cost, contained in flexibility, which is of an improbable nature.

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