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Comparative analysis of enterprise bankruptcy prediction models

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Early detection of signs of an organization's insolvency allows management to respond promptly to crisis dynamics and adjust the management system accordingly. Special models are used to predict the bankruptcy of organizations, including models based on multiple discriminant analysis (MDA). The relevance of the study is determined by the importance of the very idea of predicting bankruptcy in the realities of the current complex situation for the Russian economy and for individual organizations, as well as for the national economy as a whole. The aim of this study is to conduct a comparative analysis of known bankruptcy prediction models, typologically group the indicator factors, and form the following main groups. The study analyzed five well-known domestic and typical MDA models in terms of the similarities and differences between the factors included in them and the final indicators of the models. The weighting coefficients and indicators included in the models were analyzed. The following problems were identified: obsolescence of the numerical coefficients of the models obtained as a result of using the multiple discriminant analysis method; duplication and ambiguity in the interpretation of financial coefficients in different models; significant differences in the system of weighting coefficients and methods of interpreting the final indicators; obtaining different bankruptcy forecasts for the same enterprise when using different models. A set of the most universal indicators representing all identified groups of factors that reflect the fundamental patterns of an enterprise's economic and financial condition is proposed. Based on the analysis, the article proposes that newly developed MDA models use a unified approach in the list of indicators included in the model, while maintaining the accuracy and interpretability of the final indicators.

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